Production forecasts

Status of production

In the 50 years since the start of Norway’s petroleum activities, about 55 per cent of the estimated total recoverable resources on the continental shelf is produced and sold. This indicates that there is also a potential for a high activity level on the shelf for the coming 50 years.

In 2023, Norway produced 233.1 million Sm³ of marketable oil equivalents (Sm³ o.e.), which is a slight decline compared with the production of 233,2 million Sm³ in 2022. By comparison, total production in the record year of 2004 was 264.2 million Sm³ o.e.

Oil production in 2023 was higher than in 2022. The main reason is startup of production from new projects. The gas production was six per cent lower in 2023 than in 2022. Total sales of gas amounted to 117.3 billion Sm³ (116 billion Sm³ 40 megajoules of gas). In 2023, natural gas accounted for 50 per cent of the total production measured in oil equivalents. The reason for the reduction is mainly extended maintenance activities on the onshore facilities.

Production forecasts

Historical production and production forecasts for the next five years split by product type are shown in the figure below.

The production profile of a typical oil field shows a rapid increase to a maximum production rate, then a stable period of production (the plateau phase) followed by a gradual decline in production. Without further investments, oil production will decline rapidly, and even with considerable investment to improve recovery, it can be difficult to maintain production from a field.

As a result of the high development activity on the Norwegian continental shelf, it is expected that the oil and gas production will be stable in the coming years. Without new fields or large-scale investments on existing fields, production from the shelf would decline. New fields that come on stream will in the short term compensate for lower production from aging fields.

The future production level over time is uncertain. It depends, for example, on which initiatives are implemented on the fields, discoveries that are decided to be developed, and when they come on stream. New discoveries in the future, how large they are, and how and when they are developed, will also affect the production level over time.

The figure below shows total historical production and production forecasts until 2033, distributed by maturity of the resources.