Production forecasts

Status of production

Over the past 50 years, about 56 per cent of the estimated total recoverable resources on the Norwegian continental shelf have been produced and sold. This indicates that there is also a potential for a high activity level on the shelf for the coming 50 years.

Based on a preliminary estimate for 2024, Norway produced 240.2 million marketable standard cubic metres of oil equivalents (Sm³ o.e.). This is an increase compared to 2023, when 233.3 million Sm³ were produced. By comparison, total production in the record year of 2004 was 264.2 million Sm³ o.e.

Oil production was lower in 2024 than in 2023. The main reason for this decline is that few fields came into production and that most fields are in a phase where oil production is declining. Gas production, on the other hand, peaked in 2024, and more gas energy has never been delivered from the Norwegian continental shelf in a calendar year.  This can be explained by good regularity in the facilities, increased capacity as a result of maintenance shutdowns carried out in 2023, and high demand for gas. Total sales of gas amounted to 126 billion Sm³ (124 billion Sm³ 40 megajoules of gas). In 2024, natural gas accounted for more than 50 per cent of the total production measured in oil equivalents.

Production forecasts

Historical production and production forecasts for the next five years split by product type are shown in the figure below.

The production profile of a typical oil field shows a rapid increase to a maximum production rate, then a stable period of production (the plateau phase) followed by a gradual decline in production. Without further investments, oil production will decline rapidly, and even with considerable investment to improve recovery, it can be difficult to maintain production from a field.

As a result of the high development activity on the Norwegian continental shelf, it is expected that the oil and gas production will be stable in the coming years. Without new fields or large-scale investments on existing fields, production from the shelf would decline. The new fields coming on stream will in the short term compensate for lower production from aging fields.

The production level in the long term is uncertain. It depends, among other things, on the measures implemented on the fields, discoveries that are decided to be developed, and when they come into production. New discoveries in the future, their size, and how and when they are developed will also affect the production level in the long term.

The figure below shows the total historical production and forecasts until 2034, distributed by the maturity of the resources.